Weather forecast

Annndddd the weather for Sunday's race looks rather questionable.  I've seen between 46-49 degrees and so far a 30% chance of rain.  I'm really hoping this whole rain thing doesn't happen because this girl hates getting wet.  I didn't retire from the sport of swimming just to pick up running in the rain.  Even so, I am deciding on what to wear and have to plan for wet weather.  Here's what I'm thinking so far:

1) Capris- Even if it gets a little warmer, I think I'm beginning to like running in spandex rather than shorts.  Never thought I'd make the switch but I'm really not a fan of shorts rubbing between my legs for over 2 hours.  I'm really digging my new Old Navy Active capris, check them out.
2) Sneakers- I know this is a big no-no before a race but I really need new shoes.  My Brooks were great but are old and making my ankles hurt- shoe shopping is happening tomorrow.
3) Cushioned socks
4) Spi Belt- Obsessed.  Will hold gels, TONS OF TISSUES, chapstick, etc.
5) Headband- Regular Goodie one I always wear, don't think it will be cold enough for a cold-weather headband.
6) Top- short-sleeves or long??? THAT IS THE QUESTION!  I'm leaning towards short-sleeves with a throwaway sweatshirt on top but it's keeping me up at night! (not really but I am unsure). 
7) Trash bag for rain? Seriously, what do I wear for rain besides this?

I probably won't make the final call on the outfit until right before but what do you think?  My dad is absolutely no help seeing as he likes to run in long underwear and sweatpants from 1985 and thinks this is an appropriate outfit for me as well.  Updates on my new shoes and running playlist later this week!